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        Hebei South Network 6 million kilowatts, Shandong 5 million kilowatts, Hubei 3 million kilowatts, Anhui 2 million kilowatts, Jiangxi 800,000 to 1 million kilowatts ... This group of figures represents not the local power generation installed capacity this year, but this summer The impending power supply “gap”.

        The power shortage range exceeds last year

        According to the forecast of the State Grid Jiangsu Company, the largest electricity load in Jiangsu Province this summer will increase by nearly 10% year-on-year, which is equivalent to an increase in the electricity load of Nanjing. In the summer of 2017, the maximum load of Jiangsu Power Grid exceeded 100 million kilowatts, becoming the second domestic load-breaking province after Guangdong.

         “In the past few years, during the peak summer season, the eastern and central provinces have also experienced local power supply shortages to varying degrees.” Hu Chaofan, director of the dispatching plan of the National Center, said that in the macro economy, temperature, electric energy replacement, etc. Under the influence of factor superposition, demand for electricity consumption has increased significantly this year. "This summer, the lack of electricity in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and East China regions will be concentrated, and there will be power shortages in some parts of Central China."

         Xue Jing, deputy director of the Industry Development and Resource Conservation Department of CEC, once said that the growth in demand for electricity in the whole society exceeded the previous expectations of the China Electricity Council. According to the "2017-2018 National Electricity Supply and Demand Situation Analysis and Forecast Report" released by the China Electricity Council at the beginning of this year, the total electricity consumption of the whole society increased by 5.5% this year. However, according to the operation of the power industry, from January to May, the national total electricity consumption was 2662.8 billion kWh, an increase of 9.7% year-on-year; among them, the electricity consumption growth rate in May was as high as 11.4%.

        Short gap duration

        "Now there is a lack of electricity, not a shortage of electricity." Hu Chaofan believes that short-term power shortages in local areas are seasonal and structural power gaps, which are different from the large-scale "power cuts" that occurred in the past when installations were insufficient.

        “When power generation was insufficient for more than a decade ago, the peak load was more than 300 million kilowatts, and the maximum power gap exceeded 30 million kilowatts. At that time, there was a real shortage of electricity and a shortage of electricity.” Shan Yiguo told reporters, “According to the forecast, this summer The maximum load in the operation scope of the State Grid is close to 800 million kilowatts, that is, the power gap during the peak period of electricity use reaches 20 million kilowatts, and the proportion of the total load is only 2.5%."

        “It is still necessary to acknowledge that the situation at the peak of this summer is indeed more severe than last year. The peak load period is putting a lot of pressure on the grid operation.” Hu Chaofan said that during the peak load period, grid lines and generator sets are facing great security pressure. Need to pay more attention.

Demand side management should deal with structural power shortage

 While the demand for electricity exceeds expectations, the growth rate of power generation installed to ensure power supply is falling.

 According to the "China Power Industry Annual Development Report" issued by China Electricity Council, the national power generation installed capacity increased by 7.7% in 2017, and the growth rate dropped by 0.5 percentage points from the same period of the previous year. In the newly installed capacity, the newly installed wind power and solar power generations totaled 18.19 million kilowatts and 53.41 million kilowatts, accounting for 54.58% of the installed capacity increase; the thermal power generation installed capacity was 44.53 million kilowatts, a year-on-year decrease of 11.78%; nuclear power The newly installed capacity is only 2.18 million kilowatts, the lowest level in five years.

  "At present, the country's overall planning, the consideration of meeting the peak demand for electricity consumption is relatively weak. More than half of the new installed capacity is new energy. In fact, during the period of high load, the growth of 'effective installation' is insufficient." According to industry experts, from the principle of power generation, wind power and solar power are difficult to make up for the power gap. “Solar power can't be generated at night, and wind power generators are not ideal for high-temperature weather. These are just the peak of summer electricity consumption. Time. There are a lot of new installations, but not so much during the peak period."

In this regard, the relevant person in charge of the State Grid Corporation believes that in order to solve the power shortage of several decades in the summer peak period, it is not economical to invest hundreds of billions of yuan to build additional power and transmission lines. "At present, the actual and effective method is still to carry out peak-cutting and valley filling through demand-side management."

Peak cutting and valley filling to cope with peak load

“For high-energy-consuming enterprises, small and medium-sized industrial enterprises, etc., blue, yellow, orange, and red four-level warnings, under different gap levels, the load available to users is clearly defined in the orderly power supply plan issued by the government. He Sheng, Marketing Department of the State Grid Marketing Department, said, “Once there is a gap, the user will be notified to stop the load at the appointed time. If refused to implement, we will also directly load the relevant load with the permission of the provincial, city and county governments. stop."

 In addition to the orderly use of electricity by administrative orders, market-oriented power demand response has continued to advance in recent years. Large industrial, commercial, and residential users can voluntarily participate in the demand side response, and at the peak period, they can exchange a certain amount of compensation by reducing the power load. "By guiding through the marketization mechanism, the enthusiasm of users to participate in the load reduction is stimulated, and this adjustment mode will become the norm in the future.

 However, due to the lack of formation mechanism of local financial situation, electricity price and compensation price, although the power demand response promotion has achieved certain results, it still faces greater pressure at this stage. During the peak period of power consumption, the grid is overloaded and unstable, and the economic and security losses caused by society should not be underestimated.

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